Patient-based market forecast model.






Case Studies





Case Studies

  • Market Model

This pharmaceutical market model case study [real world, sanitized model] is based on a patented chemotherapy drug cocktail for a specific type of cancer. 


The first step in developing a market model is to figure out which regions of the world we are targeting with our marketing campaign and sales force.  We then need to figure out our target market, as defined by a drug label or product application, and derive the total number of people that might make use of the product.  In this case we started with the total regional populations downloaded from census organizations and then A powerful patient-based and disease-specific market model, the recommended framework for any patient and disease-based forecast.applied the cancer epidemiology across the individual regions, as best we could, to come up with a useable population.  At that point we examined the various treatment options, competitive and non-competitive, available and applied some basic computations to figure out how large our market population really is.


In this instance, we are focusing in on cancer treatment response rates or survival rates.  Other life-threatening disease models often use death rates to calculate markets and revenues.


The targeted patient group for this specific drug cocktail is comprised of second line and beyond treatment candidates.  The market model illustrated on the right is a very small portion of the 2nd line patient population available for treatment.  There are quite a number of user inputs required for this model.  Many of these inputs are garnered from empirical data and industry experts.  This type of on-the-fly modeling is great for management needing to make quick changes without the need to track the effects through the modeling system.  The changes propagate automatically.


Once we determine our expected peak market share, we need to establish the rate at which we attain this peak market share [uptake] and what market environmental issues enhance or degrade our market share over time [i.e. patent expiration, early stage competitive products].  The market model is intuitive and easy to update, maintain or refine on an ongoing basis and can be used on a national, regional or international level.Furthermore, we need to account for individual markets coming on-line on varying launch dates as illustrated in the image on the right.


Often times there are multiple sources of market data.  Many times market data for the identical regions do not match.  In these cases SG Systems will set up simple checkboxes within the models allowing quick and easy switching between data sets.


The market model is the first of many important steps in constructing accurate product valuation models.  The next step is to set-up our revenue model.


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